Internet On The Verge Of A Overload

[Saint_Michael 3]

Although not a hot a topic in the sense that was just found out, but for years now people have been speculating when the big internet crash will happen because of the way the internet has grown since the days of ARPAnet. As the article menton several technologies and breakthroughs in browser render have made the internet as it is today.

I would say this part of the article could foretell the internet's big crash.

"In one day, YouTube sends data equivalent to 75 billion e-mails; so it's clearly very different," said Phil Smith, head of technology and corporate marketing at Cisco Systems.

Now start adding file hosting and image hosting and you could even double or triple that number depending on the sites and there popularity. Now I am only guessing but I would say that either a few million or bill terabytes of bandwidth a day, however the saving grace they mention is the fiber optic lines that are replacing the copper lines and routers getting more advance to be able to handle the load. They also mention the fact some ISP are cutting the bandwidth a user has because of the increase usage and as well all know bandwidth is not free (go figure on that one really). Even some countries have bandwidth limits, I know India is one of them that have a cap on how much a user can use, I know there are several more countries that do this but none come to mind.

Although the people who are monitoring this situation believe it will be awhile before this happens, but there is one thing they do know they can't control and that is the weather. We know that because of the earthquake/Tsunami that hit the Pacific crippled most of the internet infrastructure for a lot of countries, and they are still trying fix it as we speak, it is mostly patch work that has help to bring most everyone back online but with older cable lines. Which leads into my final point that the old cable lines cannot handle this load anymore at the rate the internet is growing and the old lines don't get replace the internet overload could happen.

In all reality with the money people are making off the internet these days, I don't really see a problem in the next 5-10 years from now, But the thing I would like ot bring up though is with the technology that helps monitor website I think it would be a good idea to start deleting sites that no one goes to anymore. The first question that comes to mind is why bother doing it? Well that simple, dead sites are wasting unused space and bandwidth, look at the invision free forums I seen a lot of dead sites that have yet to be remove, so you could say that environmental way, that we are wasting valuable resources. Of course as web masters it should be our job that if we don't plan to use the site anymore either delete or sell it someone who will instead of letting it sit there.

Sp the question would be is the internet on the verge of seeing a crash like the stock market? Or are we worrying about nothing because of the rate that technologies gets upgrade?

SOURCE

Here

[Mich 0]

Very interesting StMike. I being one of the people on an old copper wire connection wonder at the possibility of this happening. The only fiberoptics available to me at this point is through my cable TV network and the cost in our small community for this is prohibitive to those on fixed incomes. So I struggle along with my landline phone connection, pulse at that. I did manage to get my ISP to throw in their accelerator option free to me. Their closest network connection is some 20-25 miles from me and their main base is in Chicago over 300 miles from me. It is fairly dependable, but has its quirks now and again. Uploading and downloading is a trip. Anyway, I hope a crash doesn't come any too soon.

[osknockout 0]

@Saint_Michael: I doubt that it'll be crashing anywhere in the next decade or so. If I'm right, the majority of the internet traffic can be found originating in the USA. (don't flame me people, this is off of memory and information that's like 2 years old) And if my history's correct, way more fiber optic cables were made than were necessary there. Besides, factoring in the rise in bandwidth off of those old cables due to new technologies and better on-the-fly compression algorithms, it'd take some God_Virus to shut this thing down. Or WWIII. And I don't see either happening.

 

~Plus, even if an entire region is shut down, it's not that big of a problem. Major corporations have servers around the world. And people have lots of other ways to communicate and do business transactions besides the internet. If I'm right, facsimile business will boom in that case. Besides, the only real thing that'll be lost are the pure .com businesses, and that bubble was burst a while ago. We won't need to worry about that happening again for a long time.

[t3jem 0]

I don't think the internet can crash due to overuse. If the people used too much bandwidth then it would just get slow because the servers can't push that much information out or that much info can't get through the cables at once. like osknockout said, it would have to be a monster virus or something to take down the internet; however, overload could take down internet in a general area if the copper wires were overheated, but that's only on cable internet, you can't do that with wireless internet (ISPs usually use fiber optic, but home users usually use copper).

[srujanlive 0]

This has been the concern since long. The problem is actually with the ISPs. They are able to provide cheap broadband services because the average user doesn't do bittorrent downloads or watch high quality streaming videos all day. So, they can provide hi speed internet access to the 10% high end users without upgrading their networks and servers much. But the trend may well be changing. With Youtube and hardware like Nintendo Wii and Apple Tv, there are gonna be only high end users. This could lead to server crashes and so called collapse of the internet. But there is hope and it is believed to be yet again Google. Google is said , though without much credible evidence, to be setting up several bases across the US to hold high speed servers. So they can provide bandwidth to ISPs. However again there is no true evidence of this but it could be a useful direction for Google.

[nol 0]

It seems very un-likely. At least when it comes to actually thinking about it, when you get down to the technality, it seems actually very possible. But most people don't want it to happen, so they beleive it never will. Bassically, it probably will someday. I doubt that it will happen anytime soon. Maybe in the next 10 years, it will start to have problems, but if the internet goes down, do you know how much terror that could happen?Probably many security breeches, much theft, your whole life information, floating around in cyber space. That could really be bad. So I bet the ISPs are trying to keep it so this doesn't happen.

[adriantc 0]

I think the Internet has gone a long way from when it was built. it's pretty hard for me to believe that the Internet is going to crash sooner or later, or even have an overload. I know the Internet has grown a lot but since it hasn't any central systems that it can't simply crash. Not to mention the fact that the Internet has a huge advertisement potential. You were talking about the bandwidth requirements of the Internet, but you have to understand that the Internet doesn't only consume but also provides profit for certain people. You have to see the Internet as a gold mine, and unexplored goldmine. Once they fully understand the power of the Internet they will make full profit out of it. That is only a matter of time!I think that with time bandwidth cost will reduce greatly this new technologies like fiber optic cables. I can only imagine what would happen if the internet to fall... The world is so dependent on the Internet that a crush would mean a great deal not necessarily financially but also socially! I have to admit that I am somewhat a computer and Internet addict... Losing the Internet would require me to change the whole lifestyle!I would be more afraid of global warming and the greenhouse effect then the Internet crashing... :-)

[sylenzednuke 0]

Even some countries have bandwidth limits, I know India is one of them that have a cap on how much a user can use, I know there are several more countries that do this but none come to mind.
In all reality with the money people are making off the internet these days, I don't really see a problem in the next 5-10 years from now, But the thing I would like ot bring up though is with the technology that helps monitor website I think it would be a good idea to start deleting sites that no one goes to anymore. The first question that comes to mind is why bother doing it? Well that simple, dead sites are wasting unused space and bandwidth, look at the invision free forums I seen a lot of dead sites that have yet to be remove, so you could say that environmental way, that we are wasting valuable resources. Of course as web masters it should be our job that if we don't plan to use the site anymore either delete or sell it someone who will instead of letting it sit there.

Sp the question would be is the internet on the verge of seeing a crash like the stock market? Or are we worrying about nothing because of the rate that technologies gets upgrade?

Yes, India does have a cap on how much a user can use but the ISPs are making it worse by even cutting it down. And the internet is not really that much into people's lives here, but it is quite widely, more than it is in America, used here like in cities such as Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, all the big cities and North-East areas. So no one really cares for wi-fi or anything of that sort. Until last year, most of us used only dial-up to connect to the internet.

I agree that some web-site monitoring technology should be put to use to delete inactive web-sites which are just using up space and bandwidth. But, we are worrying about this and I personally don't think this is ever going to happen. The internet is not run on a simple computer that smash it and it's gone forever. The most that can happen is the copper wires getting over-heated and then the internet not being available in the vicinity, once another method is found to connect, everything's back to normal!

Besides, factoring in the rise in bandwidth off of those old cables due to new technologies and better on-the-fly compression algorithms, it'd take some God_Virus to shut this thing down. Or WWIII. And I don't see either happening.
Plus, even if an entire region is shut down, it's not that big of a problem. Major corporations have servers around the world. And people have lots of other ways to communicate and do business transactions besides the internet. If I'm right, facsimile business will boom in that case. Besides, the only real thing that'll be lost are the pure .com businesses, and that bubble was burst a while ago. We won't need to worry about that happening again for a long time.

I agree, to make it "crash", we do need a God_Virus or WWIII happening. The most that can happen now is connectivity problems, connection to the internet won't be available and I don't see any other damage being caused 'cause of the simple over-heating of the copper wires.

With Youtube and hardware like Nintendo Wii and Apple Tv, there are gonna be only high end users. This could lead to server crashes and so called collapse of the internet. But there is hope and it is believed to be yet again Google. Google is said , though without much credible evidence, to be setting up several bases across the US to hold high speed servers. So they can provide bandwidth to ISPs. However again there is no true evidence of this but it could be a useful direction for Google.

I agree, in the past 3 years my own net usage has shot upto like 200% or 300%, and all thanks to so many new things coming up! It's good if Google is actually planning on this and this would be very helpful for the internet and everyone as a whole.

I think that with time bandwidth cost will reduce greatly this new technologies like fiber optic cables. I can only imagine what would happen if the internet to fall... The world is so dependent on the Internet that a crush would mean a great deal not necessarily financially but also socially! I have to admit that I am somewhat a computer and Internet addict... Losing the Internet would require me to change the whole lifestyle!I would be more afraid of global warming and the greenhouse effect then the Internet crashing...

Well, I am a total computer addict and not somewhat of an addict. I am and it's just that I can't help it. I myself will have to change my entire lifestyle and everything and I can't imagine my life without the internet, just one day of no connectivity leaves me angry and what not on the ISP! Everything's interconnected with each other, my real life and my cyber life and I don't know how'd it be to live on with just one of them 'cause I got both at the same time and things have been progressing together in the presence of both. But Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming are surely bigger dangers and they definitely should be given more thought than the crash of the Internet.

[Saint_Michael 3]

Well the God-virus will take years to program if possible, because the virus would have to be several things at once; a worm, macro, botnet, rootkit, hardware, software type of a virus. Now we seen several variations to computer viruses that combine one or more of them, but not all at once and so the God virus would have to be something like skynet from terminator 3 to be considered a god virus. Although many people are not saying it but are thinking it, that htis war on terrorism could be considered World War III but without the nukes. If you remember correctly everyone predicted that if World War III were to happen, nukes would have to be launched in order for this to happen, but since the governments are not stupid enough to launch nukes WWIII is likely never to happen unless someone did launch a nuke.I will agree that a internet crash will not happen in the time I mention it still is a possibility, but like the Y2k everyone got prepared for it and thus the world didn't collapse like some speculated. I did see a few reports of fishermen in the asian pacific countries selling off copper wire and fiber optic wire for some quick cash, that oculd be another problem that could lead to this. As usuall though, this is a debatable topic and only time will tell on how the internet will be like 10 years from now.

[osknockout 0]

@sylenzednuke: Lol, a lot of us are addicts. I think there'd be a LOT of changes here. @Saint_Michael: Well, I don't know. I think a base self-modifying polymorphing x86 virus will do for the God_Virus.All that's really needed to be done is to take down the main servers and connectors. Most of which should be x86based. So once the Itaniums and the other on-the-edge processors are down, we can kiss it goodbye. All it'd takeis a good simulation of the old LOADALL instruction of the old pentiums -if anyone knows what I'm talking about-.All in all, what I'm basically saying is that it wouldn't take that years. Probably a few months because once aprocessor-based exploit is found, the only thing one would have to hide is a TCP/IP protocol and a few buffer overflowand a cheap DoS (hyperping?) type operations. But... you'd assume that someone who actually knows this stuff wouldwaste his time programming the death of the Internet. It'd be kinda pointless. So... I'm pretty sure no one will be doing it.Lol, we talk about some of the most unlikely things here. All things considered, it is pretty unpredictable, but an overload seems pretty unlikely.

Edited June 29, 2007 by osknockout (see edit history)