Likelihood Of War In Iran? Likelihood, causation, repercussions..

[dangerdan 0]

Tensions between the US and Iran have been getting worse and worse for a while now. Between Al Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Iran has two leaders willing to regularly taunt the West with their nuclear acquirement policy. Iran's political leaders opinions on Israel are certainly something for concern for the West, particularly as Israel is a nuclear armed, and presumably willing, state. If tensions in the region continue to rise then eventually the situation will reach breaking point, and a result of a potentially minor catalyst, the Middle East could be plunged into a destructive war. Ironically, however, this may be the very moment that Western intervention in the area ceases, with countries pulling out of Iraq and talking about an Afghan withdrawal, and world leaders extremely hesitant to send troops into new wars, with thoughts of domestic policy and reelection at the forefront of their mind. However Iran does not have problems solely on the foreign stage, the country is deeply divided as last years elections showed. The return of Ahmadinejad was following by days, even weeks, of demonstrations on the streets by Iranian reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi supporters literally flooded the streets, bringing the cities to a stand still. Even to this day there are sporadic demonstrations on the street and if Mr Ahmadinejad doesn't deal with his domestic unrest soon, the country may well be plunged into civil war before he has a chance to plunge it into war with the West.

[kleong 0]

With US (bush), you can be sure that war will break out anytime soon. But with the new administration under Obama, it remains to be seen if he is as war-ready as Bushie.

[networker 0]

I certainly hope not another war. There is enough tension and troublein the world a sit is. It's the leaders who start these wars, and thecommon men who have to fight them.I'd like to think I'm basically a normal person. I haven't had a violent encounter with anyonesince I was a kid. Most people are the same. Why can't these world leaders just grow upand stop threatening the end of the world because of their childishness?These people are sick.

[dangerdan 0]

There is a dilemma at play here. On the one hand, Iran keeps taunting the West with its pursuit of weapons-grade uranium, on the other hand, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have left many in the West not wanting to send troops abroad again, and this will put political pressure on the leaders not to go to war. I don't think it is fair to lay the blame for any impending war entirely with Iran, both Israel and America have been major antagonists in the escalating tension. If there is going to be, I would imagine (hope?) there will be a great number of protests in the West against going to war with Iran.Then there is the need for 'legality', a question that is particularly poignant in the UK at the moment given the Chilcot Enquiry and the question of the legality of the military intervention in Iraq. If the West is to somehow attempt to engineer a regime change in Iran it will need a cause, an incident, otherwise a UN resolution. And at that point I very much get the feeling that history is starting to repeat itself...