Report On Iraq Iraq is much worse than people think. -- Nir Rosen

[mik 0]

Yesterday I listened to an interview of reporter Nir Rosen on the radio. Mr. Rosen was being asked, and talking about, the present situation in Iraq.

He made the following points:
--- The US military is acting largely as just another participant militia in the ongoing civil war, and is certainly unable to keep a lid on things.
--- In recent months the military has made itself less visible on the streets of Baghdad, that is it has confined itself to staying in camp more. This is to give the Iraqi army and police force a chance to show their mettle. Now you can travel around Baghdad for two days, and never see a US humvee.
--- In the last year there have been more Sunni dead than Shia dead. This is a turnaround of the previous balance of power, for the first two years of the war Shia dead exceeded Sunni dead.
--- The Shia essentially hold all the trump cards, they outnumber the Sunni in Iraq, they control the army, the police force and the ministries. They are able in many cases to influence the Americans, more so than the Sunni. They are waiting for the Americans to leave, before attempting to clear Baghdad, and all Iraq if possible, of Sunni. This is ethnic cleansing.

Nir Rosen is an independent journalist who has reported extensively on the ground in Iraq, and has spent time with both Sunni and Shia insurgent groups in his efforts to build a complete picture of the situation.

Here are some more of the points he covered during the interview:
--- What is turning out to be a civil war between Sunni and Shia in Iraq could escalate and spread and become some sort of Sunni/Shia regional conflict.
--- Iran has little or no influence on the Iraqi Shia population and does not supply weapons to the militias. This is because Iraqi Shia are proud Iraqis and nationalistic and do not want Iran interfering, also Iraq is awash with weapons so there is no need for help from Iran to that end.
--- The original Al Qaeda was destroyed by the US as a result of the Afghan invasion but various factions in Iraq have adopted "Al Quada" as a brand name. They have no connection with some guys with famous names hiding out in caves along the Pakistan Afghan border.
--- Ultimately it is quite possible that the US, rather than "withdraw", might be driven out of Iraq.

Nir Rosen said that when the Samara shrine got destroyed last February, this angered the Shia militias and they "took the gloves off". In the space of a few days over I,000 Sunni were dead. Otherwise, Shia are willing to hold back and let the Americans do their dirty work for them (basically at the direction of Shia informers who direct the military to which Sunni target to hit next), as long as the military do not fall behind on the job. Since 2005 things have not been going fast enough, so the Shia have organised death squads that carry out mass arrests in Sunni neighbourhoods, torturing and killing people in the dead of night just for being Sunni.

Of course the US occupying force targets Shia as well, but mostly it is the Sunnis that are getting hit. Also, the big Shia militias do not get along, so even if there were no Sunnis involved Shias would still be fighting each other.

"Iraq is just being controlled by various gangs, tribal gangs, criminal gangs, religious gangs, anybody with a gun and a few friends with guns, so in terms of a vision, few people can really elaborate on one ..." -- Nir Rosen.


You can go to this website to hear the radio interview in full (20 minutes).

Edited July 2, 2006 by mik (see edit history)

[dyknight 0]

Is the website reliable? They seem to have links with the BBC and the L.A. Weekly, but they don't seem to have much other credentials that I know of. I will probably believe the part about

The original Al Qaeda was destroyed by the US as a result of the Afghan invasion but various factions in Iraq have adopted "Al Quada" as a brand name. They have no connection with some guys with famous names hiding out in caves along the Pakistan Afghan border.

and

In recent months the military has made itself less visible on the streets of Baghdad, that is it has confined itself to staying in camp more. This is to give the Iraqi army and police force a chance to show their mettle. Now you can travel around Baghdad for two days, and never see a US humvee.

but the others seem too unbelievable. How is it possible for a single tribe to control all the security forces in Iraq? Do they really have the power to order the Americans around? Can't the large numbers of US soldiers control the insurgents? They are after all "gangsters" as described by Nir Rosens while the US soldiers are professional combatants.
Forgive my ignorance.

[mik 0]

Hi dyknight,

Is the website reliable? They seem to have links with the BBC and the L.A. Weekly, but they don't seem to have much other credentials that I know of. ...

Yes, the website is reliable, Ian Masters, the guy who runs it comes from Australia, by way of the UK to California, where he now lives. He is an independent journalist producing a 1 hour radio show every week, basicially he is a one man band with limited funding, but his credibility is enhanced because he always manages to interview well respected people that have particular knowledge of recent events. In fact, that is what his program format consists of, 3 interviews with 3 people over an hour long program.

... How is it possible for a single tribe to control all the security forces in Iraq? Do they really have the power to order the Americans around? Can't the large numbers of US soldiers control the insurgents? They are after all "gangsters" as described by Nir Rosens while the US soldiers are professional combatants.

Sorry, did not make this bit clear so it reads all wrong. Should have said, "The Shia are able in many cases to influence the Americans, more so than the Sunni", I have changed my original post. Of course the US army is able to stand tall and strong above all this mess, except to say that the Americans are constantly seeking solutions every day for ways to stamp out the insurgency, most of the Iraqi national army, the police force and the Iraqis directly employed by the Americans are Shia who hate Sunnis, it naturally follows that most of the "intelligence" supplied to the Americans will be helpful to the Shia cause and detrimental to the Sunni.